Sales of autonomous vehicles will reach five million in the US by 2026, study says
Annual sales of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) in the US will reach five million by 2026, according to a new study by Juniper Research. Juniper also expects a total of 20 million new AVs to be sold globally during the same year.
The main drivers for the adoption of AV technologies will be competition from the likes of Google, whose focus has been on entirely driverless vehicles as well as heavy investments from car manufacturers such as Volvo, Audi, Daimler and GM, Juniper Research says. Other key drivers will be governments enabling firms to test AVs on their roads and invest in smart city infrastructure as well as drivers getting used to Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), Juniper Research said.
Google is further ahead than traditional manufacturers in terms of technology and miles tested. Technology by Waymo, the Mountain View tech giant’s self driving car project, is set to be integrated into smart city strategies for public transportation and could license its expertise to other OEMs, threatening the role of the tier-one suppliers, the report says.
Juniper estimates that 45 million on-road vehicles will have some form of ADAS functionality by the end of 2018, with adoption reaching 100 million by 2020. Additionally, with luxury vehicles incorporating semi-autonomous technologies, such as the new Audi A8, the market will evolve to full automation, while shifting its focus to delivering a complete driver experience.
“The introduction of fully autonomous technologies, with some vehicles no longer having steering wheels and pedals, will mean that the focus will shift from how drivers get from A-B to how the occupants use the journey time,” said Juniper researcher Michael Larner.
Qualcomm recently worked with Audi, Ford and the 5G Automotive Association to demonstrate C-V2X interoperability between vehicles from different manufacturers. The demo transmitted real-time data over ‘intelligent transportation spectrum’ (ITS) in the 5.9 GHz band for use cases including vehicle-to-vehicle collision avoidance and improved road safety without any dependence on cellular operator networks.
Nakul Duggal, vice president of product management at Qualcomm Technologies, said the company is “committed to accelerating automotive innovation and enabling carmakers to deliver safe and connected vehicles. After years spearheading the development of C-V2X we are ready for its rollout in collaboration with leading automakers such as Audi and Ford, and the larger auto industry.”
Qualcomm is also a major player in the development of the 5G New Radio specification. A primary 5G use case is support for ultra reliable low latency communication, which, over the long term, is well-suited to provide connectivity for roads full of autonomous vehicles.