Autonomous car sales will hit 24 million units in 2030
Berg Insight estimates the autonomous car market will grow at a CAGR of 62% during the 2020-2030 period
The total number of new registrations of autonomous cars is expected to reach 24 million in 2030 compared to 200,000 in 2020, which will represent a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62% during the period, according to Swedish research firm Berg Insight.
The European firm estimates that the first autonomous cars will be initially launched in 2020.
Berg Insight also estimates the active installed base of autonomous cars will reach approximately 71 million at the end of 2030. These figures include SAE Level 3 and 4 cars, the research firm said.
Several automobile manufacturers have already kicked off projects to develop self-driving features in their cars. The incumbent automakers are joined by IT companies and other technology-oriented firms. Most incumbent automotive companies are pursuing an incremental approach with step-by-step roll-out of autonomous systems while startups and IT companies take a more revolutionary direction and aim at developing fully autonomous cars immediately from zero. “These pathways do not contradict each other as different autonomous systems are suitable in different use cases. We will continue to see development from both sides for still some years before the two approaches converge”, Berg Insight Analyst Ludvig Barrehag said.
Berg Insight believes that autonomous cars will have a big impact on the society in several ways. “Cars are among the most costly as well as inefficiently used assets of today. When cars can operate around the clock on a service based business model it results in a tremendous increase of their utilization rate. Furthermore, autonomous cars will improve life quality for people unable to drive, reduce the number of fatalities and accidents in road traffic and increase overall traffic efficiency,” Berg Insight’s report said.
The Swedish firm also highlighted that the software for interpreting sensor information and managing the driving logic is a key process for the future development of self-driving cars.